It is no secret that the Corona outbreak caused massive layoffs. Millions of people apply for unemployment benefits, every week. The impact on the financial markets is higher than the impact of WWII. Think about this for a moment. Lucky enough is Corona not so deadly as WWII. In the USA 36,5 million people have applied for unemployment benefits. Next to the 99 weeks are they now getting a bonus. This makes sense. It is an election year. By doing this have the politicians created a very powerful incentive to never return to work.
68% of the unemployed people are making more money by watching their favorite streaming service, BBQ’ing, making love to there partner, and dink beer than by working. How are you going to stimulate them to work? If you look at the median replacement rate, so how much money people get compared to what they got before, it is 134%. So they make 34% more.
How many people love the job they did? This is a question that matters. After all, is the financial incentive completely gone? What would you do? Stay at home or at work?
A good method to get people back to work is by getting high paying jobs. This, off course, will impose inflation. Something that eats your purchasing power and all debt away. But where are the high paying jobs coming from?
Would hotel workers, restaurant workers, those picking the orders at warehouse facilities being capable of finding a high paying job? Would they be qualified for it? Just look at the fast-food restaurant jobs. This is entry jobs. On average people work there less than a year. It is the job you need to get started. From there can you move on the ladder of society.
The cold, hard reality is that there will ben not enough jobs. The move of eCommerce is eating away brick and mortar stores.
Just consider this. A Facebook survey under small business owners affected by the Corona outbreak said that 1 in 3 small businesses will not reopen. They simply can’t pay the rent. This will send a shockwave to the financial markets. How can all those mortgages be repaid? Where will the money come from?
The benefits are not going to be tripped away. At least not during 2020. The USA is in an election year. Elections that result in politicians buying votes. do you see Nancy Pelosi suggesting to skip all of this and let the states go bankrupted? Do you see President Trump taking the money away?