Putin has good reasons to be very skeptical about the USA. No, I’m not talking about the MH17 or the sanctions. I’m looking at the NATO military bases. The complete disrespect from NATO for Russia. Not that I’m supportive of violations of nuclear weapons. But what is the real reason for having those treaties? Yes, to violate them. To have good pr and win some international prices. But the real war is not with bullets. It is with money.
So what is Putin doing? Well, together with China they are killing the Dollar. It might be the case that they are working together or not. I don’t know. Let’s face it. They have both good interest in killing the US Dollar.
Here comes a big problem. We are living in a “just in time” world. Factories and shops need things on time, not when it is ready. This is something that means it is critical. Some emergency could ruin it. so what are they doing it? Let me begin with side player china.
China is trading with the USA. They are foolish enough to accept the worthless US Dollar as a method of payment. So what is China doing? Well, they export the treasury papers and US Dollars. You like to get a Belt and Road initiative project, paid for by China. You have the deal. But you need to accept the US Treasury bills and US Dollar. But repay in Chinese RMB. What China is doing on this method is just dumping the Dollar. But now it is OPEC members as Angola that are doing it. You need to look at the details, think about it and understand geopolitics to see the picture.
Very good for China. Very bad for the USA. Not to mention that this allows China political gains within OPEC. Not that OPEC matters, what have they achieved in recent years? Nothing.
Then we come to what Putin is doing. Russia has more than enough natural resources. Gazprom and Rosneft are state-owned. Russians are more than capable to suffer for the country. They can simply put taxpayers’ money into the energy firms.
With the failure of OPEC to achieve anything they gave Putin the chance to gain control. They are in an oil war with Saudi Arabia. So? Who is the big winner? The consumer of the energy. Who is the big loser? Canada and the USA. Canadian oil is very expensive. Even more expensive than the Venezuela ones. The Shale is also expensive.
But who owns the firms? Well, most shale firms are extremely high leveraged with debt. Debt that was sustainable with artificially low-interest rates. That is going to end. What will this mean? Quite some operators with profitable, from the operational perspective, exploration will be saved. The rest will go out of business.
Does will this mean that the USA is no longer energy independent? I don’t know. I doubt it would matter who owns the firms. It matters what the agenda is. This should be the route of profitability, making money and achieving these serve customers.