Yesterday we had elections in Belarus. Despite the claim that it is the last remaining dictatorship in Europe, which is not true as people tend to forget Montenegro, is something interesting happening. The opposition was not divided but stuck together. A rarety in Belarus politics.
So the situation is very interesting. Let’s have a look at the different positions:
The big neighbor of Belarus in Russia. They are in a custom Union. Belarus and Russia signed a deal that ultimately would bring Belarus into the Russian Federation. Which was signed when Boris Yeltsin was the head of state. Russia subsidizes energy delivery to Belarus, offers discounted loans, and is the key market for Belarus exports.
The European Union is not happy with Belarus. But when regime change happens Poland likely becomes more influential within Belarus. Due to the war in Ukraine, the European Union had to lift some sanctions against the regime. Europe depends on the energy which is transported via the country.
The USA is meddling with elections. That is something they do all over. As well as Russia. They see Belarus as a potential entering point for energy exports.
Then we have the new kid on the block. I’m talking about China. China is developing a new Industrial park. Just outside of Minsk. So Belarus is now in the Belt and Road Initiative. But is a small part of it. The distance seems to be the problem.
I don’t give a second any chance to the opposition. One of the benefits of rigged elections is that you know who is going to win. The opposition is going to protest. The police and KGB, yes the secret service still has the old name, are going all-in against it.
So what will happen? I expect it is the last term of Luchachenko. He is seeing that the youth is angrier and angrier. He will recognize the success of the opposition. So what is next? I expect he will do it in Kazakstan. Step down. Get a new person in and remain the power behind the scenes. Than Belarus will join the Russian Federation. Which would lead to a massive investment from Poland into Belarus? Leading into a new Ukraine scenario. A country that is divided into the bone. The west wishes to join the destructive EU and the East is focussed on Russia.