he money supply growth in July reached a 6 month high. Before you start opening the bottles of champaign: don’t do it. From 1.9% to 2.19% is not impressive in my opinion. Especially as it is well down below the 2018 4.07%.
So it is very clear that economic activity is going down. After all: the money supply growth is going down.
Moreover, periods preceding recessions often show a growing gap between M2 growth and TMS growth. We saw this in 2006-7 and in 2000-1. The gap between M2 and TMS narrowed considerably from 2011 through 2015 but has grown in recent years.