It is very clear that the economic outbreak of the Coronavirus is widely underestimated. Everyone knows the factory of the world is closed. So what is the impact on other countries? What will the impact be on society?
With slowly on spreading the Corona deaths, it will be clear that more society will go in complete lockdown. A lockdown that will have a terrible impact on the economy.
With more people being ordered to stay at home we see the impact increasing. Think about it for a moment. Those who are forced to stay at home are going to spend differently. They need something to do. So online purchases will go up. But can they deliver? If you order from China you have a problem.
The people in lockdown need to eat. Here we come with something interesting. Supermarkets and other food retailers are offering the opportunity to shop online. Will this mean that fewer people are going to visit a physical shop? Will this increase retail armageddon? I think so.
Due to the lockdown, the transportation sector is hard very heard. Earlier I posted about Maersk.
At is the question of the Chinese HNA group will survive Corona. For me, this is something very important. I’m a shareholder in its largest subsidary, Hainan Airlines.
So on that side, I’m very happy that the demand for domestic flights in China is increasing. This would mean that we could say that travel will recover after 3 4 months.
This is something we need to take into consideration. Airliners are hit very hard on the stock market.
I’m wondering which airliners will survive and which not. FlyBe is already bankrupted. Virgin Atlantic sees a drop in bookings by 50%. In Israel, we see that Israir is in big troubles. After all, is 1 aircraft confiscated and parked in Lisbon. Arkia had to cancel flights and El Al signals mayday, mayday. Sacking 1 in 6 members. Actual El Al canceled a flight I intended to make. They returned the money. I keep the frequent flyer points. To show how desperate the situation is.
The quaranene measurements are going to have massive impacts. The only question is how the society will respond. Will the government loose control over society? I think so.