There is plenty to push oil up. We had a turbulent first quarter. Soleimani wiped out, Iranian retaliation, the closure of Lybian oil production and sanctions against Rosneft. But still is oil indicating recession.
The drop in demand indeed came around the same time when the Corona outbreak in China was unfolding The travel restrictions will have some impact it would not have such a massive impact as we see happening right now.
At the moment are only commodities markets telling us that there comes a recession? So it seems to be the case that central banks remain capable of keeping the bubble going on. Bot for how long?
When we left 2019 we were living with record low oil inventories. So with that being low, it would mean that prices should have gone up. But they didn’t.
So we could come to another and very unpopular conclusion. That is that we are already in a recession. This would mean that we were in a recession when the corona outbreak happened.